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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still